Gambling content 21+. The New York Post may receive an affiliate commi sion if you sign up through our links. Read our for more information. Citi Field generally plays like a pitchers park, holding fifth-lowest Park Factor over the past three seasons (97), including the second-lowest double factor (86). Throw in cloudy skies and neutral wind, and BallParkPals Weather Model projects a -13 percent Run Factor for Saturdays Gary Nolan Jersey Mets vs. Braves game e.g., expect 13% le s scoring than your typical MLB game. Behind this weather projection, BallParkPals Game Simulation model projects just 6.4 runs on Saturday in Queens. Im trusting that projection and betting the Under. While starting pitchers Spencer Schwellenbach and Tylor Megill are young and mercurial, both are high-ceiling arms. Schwellenbach is among the better command pitchers in the game (5 percent walk rate, 108 Location+), while Megill has nasty stuff (28 percent strikeout rate, 107 Stuff+) behind a hard, upper 90s fastball. Explore More Starer Spencer Schwellenbach pitches against the Cardinals at Truist Park earlier in the season. USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Con Both pitchers have ERAs close to five, but both have expected FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) marks under four, indicating positive regre sion for both guys i.e., the pitchers in this matchup are undervalued. The Mets offense has been red-hot lately, but I think theyre hitting slightly above their head. On the contrary, the Braves lineup continues to underperform without Ronald Acua Jr. at the top of the order. I also like both bullpens. Learn all you need to know about MLB Betting Read about the Learn all about The Braves rank third in reliever expected FIP this season (3.66), while the Mets rank fifth (3.77). Over the past 30 days, both units have strikeout rates over 30 percent and SIERAs under three. Ultimately, I expect a low-scoring ballgame in Queens on Saturday, similar to the 3-2 extra-innings thriller we saw on Thursday, where both teams combined for only 10 hits. The play : Mets-Braves Under 8.5 runs (-105, ) Bubba Thompson Jersey