The recent revelations of a International Energy Administration whistleblower that the IEA might have distorted crucial oil forecasts under extreme U.S. pressure is, if true (and whistleblowers seldom step forward to advance their professions), a slow-burning atomic surge on future international oil production. The Bush administration's actions in pressing the IEA to underplay the rate of decrease from existing oil fields while overplaying the chances of finding brand-new reserves have the potential to toss governments' long-lasting planning into chaos.

Whatever the reality, increasing long term international demands appear specific to outstrip production in the next decade, particularly offered the high and rising costs of developing new super-fields such as Kazakhstan's overseas Kashagan and Brazil's southern Atlantic Jupiter and Carioca fields, which will need billions in investments before their very first barrels of oil are produced.

In such a scenario, additives and replacements such as biofuels will play an ever-increasing function by stretching beleaguered production quotas. As market forces and increasing prices drive this innovation to the leading edge, one of the richest possible production locations has been totally ignored by investors up to now - Central Asia. Formerly the USSR's cotton "plantation," the area is poised to become a significant gamer in the production of biofuels if adequate foreign financial investment can be obtained. Unlike Brazil, where biofuel is produced largely from sugarcane, or the United States, where it is primarily distilled from corn, Central Asia's ace resource is an indigenous plant, Camelina sativa.

Of the previous Soviet Caucasian and Central Asian republics, those clustered around the shores of the Caspian, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have actually seen their economies boom because of record-high energy rates, while Turkmenistan is waiting in the wings as an increasing manufacturer of natural gas.

Farther to the east, in Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, geographical seclusion and relatively little hydrocarbon resources relative to their Western Caspian next-door neighbors have actually largely prevented their ability to cash in on increasing international energy needs up to now. Mountainous Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan remain largely dependent for their electrical needs on their Soviet-era hydroelectric infrastructure, but their heightened need to produce winter electrical energy has actually resulted in autumnal and winter water discharges, in turn seriously impacting the agriculture of their western downstream next-door neighbors Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.

What these 3 downstream nations do have nevertheless is a Soviet-era tradition of agricultural production, which in Uzbekistan's and Turkmenistan case was largely directed towards cotton production, while Kazakhstan, starting in the 1950s with Khrushchev's "Virgin Lands" programs, has become a significant manufacturer of wheat. Based upon my discussions with Central Asian government authorities, offered the thirsty demands of cotton monoculture, foreign propositions to diversify agrarian production towards biofuel would have terrific appeal in Astana, Ashgabat and Tashkent and to a lower level Astana for those sturdy financiers going to bet on the future, specifically as a plant native to the region has already proven itself in trials.

Known in the West as false flax, wild flax, linseed dodder, German sesame and Siberian oilseed, camelina is drawing in increased scientific interest for its oleaginous qualities, with several European and American companies currently investigating how to produce it in business quantities for biofuel. In January Japan Airlines undertook a historic test flight utilizing camelina-based bio-jet fuel, becoming the very first Asian carrier to experiment with flying on fuel originated from sustainable feedstocks during a one-hour presentation flight from Tokyo's Haneda Airport. The test was the culmination of a 12-month assessment of camelina's operational performance capability and possible business practicality.

As an alternative energy source, camelina has much to suggest it. It has a high oil material low in saturated fat. In contrast to Central Asia's thirsty "king cotton," camelina is drought-resistant and immune to spring freezing, needs less fertilizer and herbicides, and can be used as a rotation crop with wheat, which would make it of specific interest in Kazakhstan, now Central Asia's significant wheat exporter. Another bonus of camelina is its tolerance of poorer, less fertile conditions. An acre sown with camelina can produce up to 100 gallons of oil and when planted in rotation with wheat, camelina can increase wheat production by 15 percent. A heap (1000 kg) of camelina will contain 350 kg of oil, of which pressing can draw out 250 kg. Nothing in camelina production is squandered as after processing, the plant's particles can be used for livestock silage. Camelina silage has an especially appealing concentration of omega-3 fatty acids that make it an especially fine livestock feed candidate that is simply now gaining acknowledgment in the U.S. and Canada. Camelina is quick growing, produces its own natural herbicide (allelopathy) and contends well against weeds when an even crop is established. According to Britain's Bangor University's Centre for Alternative Land Use, "Camelina could be an ideal low-input crop appropriate for bio-diesel production, due to its lower requirements for nitrogen fertilizer than oilseed rape."

Camelina, a branch of the mustard family, is indigenous to both Europe and Central Asia and barely a brand-new crop on the scene: historical evidence shows it has been cultivated in Europe for at least three centuries to produce both grease and animal fodder.

Field trials of production in Montana, presently the center of U.S. camelina research study, showed a vast array of outcomes of 330-1,700 lbs of seed per acre, with oil content varying in between 29 and 40%. Optimal seeding rates have actually been identified to be in the 6-8 pound per acre variety, as the seeds' small size of 400,000 seeds per pound can create problems in germination to achieve an optimum plant density of around 9 plants per sq. ft.

Camelina's potential might permit Uzbekistan to begin breaking out of its most dolorous legacy, the imposition of a cotton monoculture that has distorted the country's attempts at agrarian reform because accomplishing independence in 1991. Beginning in the late 19th century, the Russian federal government identified that Central Asia would become its cotton plantation to feed Moscow's growing fabric industry. The process was sped up under the Soviets. While Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan were also ordered by Moscow to plant cotton, Uzbekistan in specific was singled out to produce "white gold."

By the end of the 1930s the Soviet Union had become self-dependent in cotton; five years later on it had ended up being a significant exporter of cotton, producing more than one-fifth of the world's production, concentrated in Uzbekistan, which produced 70 percent of the Soviet Union's output.

Try as it may to diversify, in the absence of alternatives Tashkent stays wedded to cotton, producing about 3.6 million tons each year, which generates more than $1 billion while making up approximately 60 percent of the country's hard cash earnings.

Beginning in the mid-1960s the Soviet federal government's instructions for Central Asian cotton production largely bankrupted the region's scarcest resource, water. Cotton uses about 3.5 acre feet of water per acre of plants, leading Soviet planners to divert ever-increasing volumes of water from the region's 2 primary rivers, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya, into inefficient watering canals, leading to the significant shrinkage of the rivers' last location, the Aral Sea. The Aral, as soon as the world's fourth-largest inland sea with a location of 26,000 square miles, has shrunk to one-quarter its original size in one of the 20th century's worst eco-friendly catastrophes.

And now, the dollars and cents. Dr. Bill Schillinger at Washington State University recently explained camelina's business design to Capital Press as: "At 1,400 pounds per acre at 16 cents a pound, camelina would generate $224 per acre; 28-bushel white wheat at $8.23 per bushel would gather $230."

Central Asia has the land, the farms, the irrigation facilities and a modest wage scale in contrast to America or Europe - all that's missing out on is the foreign investment. U.S. investors have the cash and access to the competence of America's land grant universities. What is specific is that biofuel's market share will grow over time; less certain is who will profit of developing it as a feasible issue in Central Asia.

If the recent past is anything to go by it is unlikely to be American and European investors, focused as they are on Caspian oil and gas.

But while the Japanese flight experiments indicate Asian interest, American investors have the academic expertise, if they are prepared to follow the Silk Road into establishing a new market. Certainly anything that minimizes water usage and pesticides, diversifies crop production and enhances the great deal of their agrarian population will get most mindful factor to consider from Central Asia's federal governments, and farming and grease processing plants are not only more affordable than pipelines, they can be built faster.

And jatropha's biofuel potential? Another story for another time.